2023 NBA Mock Draft 1.3 (Part Two)
A late-January mock draft update, with our first team-by-team draft fits inclusion
As January closes, the NBA and college basketball worlds are both growing closer to certainty of their situations. Within the next two weeks, we’ll know which NBA teams are buyers or sellers at the deadline, with some strengthening their odds at gaining the top overall pick and others giving away their first-round draft selections altogether. Roster fits will become more clear as well.
On the college side, we’re deep enough into conference play to have legitimate ideas about each prospect and where they must improve. The sample size isn’t too small as we approach 20 games into the year.
As a result, it’s the perfect time to drop another mock draft — this time in a slightly different fashion. Before releasing the video version on YouTube, we’re going to put out our first round over a three-day period here on our Substack. Within the mock draft, we’ll be drafting for specific teams (based on the inverse standings from the first day of the mock) and breaking down how each prospect drafted would fit with that team’s current roster. To check out Part One of our mock draft with a look at the top ten selections, click here.
Part Two begins now, looking at picks 11-20.
11. Oklahoma City Thunder - GG Jackson, South Carolina
The Thunder are in a great spot as a franchise, quickly moving toward winning games with their young, rebuilding core. Taking a flier on the high-upside but raw GG Jackson makes sense for the organization, as they could use a bigger forward like Jackson in the future as he reels in his skill development.
GG has gotten away with a lot of bad habits at South Carolina, as their offense is tailored around him in isolation and doesn’t feature a lot of accountability. The Thunder developmental environment would not let that slip, and if Jackson can reel in his potential, he’s got a chance to be special. Few guys at his size and frame as teenagers look as comfortable as he does shooting and driving. His defense and playmaking need tons of work, but there’s All-Star upside without question.
12. Phoenix Suns - Gradey Dick, Kansas
The injury-stricken Phoenix Suns may not be title contenders this season, but with Chris Paul, Devin Booker, and DeAndre Ayton, they’ll fancy themselves hopefuls for the Western Conference crown next year. Kansas sharpshooter Gradey Dick has been one of the most impressive 3-point specialists we’ve seen at the college level. He rarely has an off day, has made 44% of his 3-pointers on the season, and knows how to move without the ball. The Suns, with a star in Booker and tentpole roll man DeAndre Ayton on the roster, could use additional floor spacing around them to simplify the game.
Dick will have his fair share of defensive issues against NBA-caliber wings, especially early in his career. But the role we’ve seen him fill with the Jayhawks is one that directly translates to the NBA. Floor spacing at 6’8” is wildly important, and the Suns’ lack of wing depth could make for early-career contributions from the freshman shooting prodigy.
13. Indiana Pacers - Dariq Whitehead, Duke
If you ask me, the Pacers should still be in ‘swing for the fences’ mode to find another superstar to pair with Tyrese Haliburton. With three first-round selections in 2023, giving a guy like Whitehead a try seems like the right fit for the Pacers. Whitehead has been injured for much of his freshman campaign, and his first step doesn’t look quite like it did in high school for the score-first wing.
At his worst, Whitehead is a plus floor-spacer with a smooth jump shot and decent frame at 6’6”. If he regains that first-step quickness and plays like the athlete he’s capable of being, he can evolve into a high-caliber secondary scorer in the NBA. The Pacers have options and the ability to be patient with his development, and guys like Whitehead who have underperformed as freshmen due to injuries can provide the superstar type of return the Pacers hoped for at the outset of the season.
14. Utah Jazz - Anthony Black, Arkansas
Closing out the lottery (and with back-to-back selections) are the Utah Jazz, one of the most surprising stories in the league. They’re searching for long-term talent to build around, and getting Anthony Black at 14 is perfect for the organization. Black has top-seven upside — he’s a 6’7” point guard with good defensive intensity on the perimeter, enough burst with the ball to get to the rim, and some of the best feel as a passer that you’ll find.
The Razorbacks have gone on a slide of late due to injuries and a lack of floor spacing around Black, exposing his own underdeveloped jump shot and reliance on muscling around smaller guards to get to his spots. For the Jazz, Black can guard multiple positions and would slide into an offense with some of the best floor spacing in the NBA. That would be a huge win for him, as he’s naturally more of a playmaker than a one-on-one scorer.
15. Utah Jazz - Jett Howard, Michigan
Adding to that floor spacing would be fellow one-and-done candidate Jett Howard. Howard has one of the quickest and sweetest strokes in all of college basketball. He’s great on the move, has real size at 6’8”, and can create off the bounce for himself. He’s a good passer, too, at least off secondary actions that help him get downhill.
The issue for Howard is that he doesn’t provide a ton else other than really good shooting. His lack of athletic burst limits his self-creation ceiling, his playmaking is dependent on action getting him into the lane, he doesn’t really rebound, and he’s very poor on the defensive end. 6’8” shooters who can handle a bit don’t grow on trees, though, and Jett’s overall effectiveness on offense has him buzzing close to the lottery.
16. Los Angeles Clippers - Jalen Hood-Schifino, Indiana
We’re huge fans of Hood-Schifino here at The Box and One. The 6’4” freshman point guard plays a deliberate style and isn’t the most athletic guard you’ll ever see, but he defends extremely well at the point of attack and is really cerebral in a high-volume pick-and-roll setting. He’s a knockdown mid-range pull-up scorer and has worked one extending his range behind the 3-point line. In a better-spaced offense than the one he plays for with the Hoosiers, JHS could put up legitimately impressive assist numbers.
For the Clippers, this is a long-term solution at a position of need for the organization. Hood-Schifino likely requires a lot of on-ball reps, and those may not be there for him right out of the gates. But the veteran-laden Clippers could be best-served taking the patient approach with this draft pick and going after one of the best two-way players available outside the lottery.
17. Golden State Warriors - Kris Murray, Iowa
Like his twin brother Keegan, there’s very little that is flashy about Kris’ game. He’s really fundamentally sound, not a blistering athlete, and doesn’t need a ton of touches or dribbles to make an impact. But Murray consistently produces, is a really good spot-up scorer, and always finds a way to finish near the rim.
On the Warriors, Murray’s IQ and feel for the game without needing touches would blend in nicely. He can be a screener and off-ball threat, attack closeouts with ease, and slide into a role off the bench for a team that continues to look for additional floor spacing and depth. Murray is one of the most underappreciated prospects in the country and feels like a lock to go in the top 20.
18. Atlanta Hawks - Brice Sensabaugh, Ohio State
Sensabaugh has been a scoring revelation for the Buckeyes this year, matching the production of last year’s first-round pick Malaki Branham with greater efficiency and a more pro-translatable game. While he’s known primarily as a scorer, Sensabaugh has a very sweet jumper from 3 that opens up the rest of his game. His strong, sturdy frame and use of both hands allow him to finish near the basket, and he tests out well analytically in mid-range or isolation situations. There’s real three-level potential here.
Sensabaugh has to get better creating for others and giving effort on the defensive end. He’s only about 6’6” so he’s a tad undersized for the wings, too. In Atlanta, adding more offensive firepower and floor spacing around Trae Young should be a priority, and the strong-bodied duo of Sensabaugh and AJ Griffin could give the Hawks a lot of different looks moving forward in their backcourt.
19. New York Knicks - Maxwell Lewis, Pepperdine
One of the fastest risers up conventional draft boards, the long and lean scoring wing out of Pepperdine has one of the more impressive highlight clips you’ll see this year. He’s athletic in space, creates his own shot with ease, knocks down open catch-and-shoot looks, and just looks like an untapped star. But Lewis comes with his fair share of warts, specifically on the defensive end, where his game is severely underdeveloped.
Perhaps Tom Thibodeau and the Knicks can tap into that, though Lewis will likely take several years to become a consistent NBA rotation player. This is an upside pick by a team with two picks in the top 21. While it’s easy to fall in love with Max’s upside, there’s plenty of work to be done to get him there, part of the reason we don’t think he’ll end up closer to the lottery on draft night.
20. Miami Heat - Taylor Hendricks, UCF
Think of Hendricks as the right long-term project for one of the NBA’s premiere developmental organizations to undertake. A 6’9” forward with legitimate athleticism, Hendricks utilizes it with blistering dunks and some impressive defensive plays, both in space and as a help defender. He’s got confidence in his spot-up jumper, and with the Golden Knights has been allowed to explore his abilities as a driver or playmaker.
His most likely NBA outcome is to be more of a catch-and-shoot threat who plays in the mold of a Jae Crowder with aggressive on-ball defense against other stars. Hendricks can continue to fill out into his frame and must learn how to succeed in such a role, but he’s one of the few guys left on the board with first-round upside who athletically looks like he belongs on an NBA floor.