Best Prospects of the Last Five Years (2018-22): 20-16
Based on my pre-draft grades, these were the top players I've seen since starting watching draft film back in 2018
Since I started diving into the NBA Draft in depth back in 2018, I've tried to keep an eye on year-to-year comparisons and learn from the success & mistakes I've made in the past. Part of examining those lessons is by looking at the most consequential evaluations we do: the players at the very top of these drafts.
As we look back at the last five draft classes, we dive into the best prospects we have ever scouted and how we ranked them AT THE TIME OF THE DRAFT. Which prospects have made us look good? Which still needs time to develop? Who has disappointed and already looks like an error in our pre-draft analysis? We answer all those questions in this five-part series.
Part two of this series starts to tread a little closer toward the top of the elite prospects, where all five guys discussed here went in the top three of their draft classes. There’s a certain level of protection or security that comes in having NBA teams and almost all media members join in the consensus of having prospects ranked in the same category; if we fail, we fail collectively.
That said, our rankings and prioritization of these players was a little different than the mainstream. You’ll see a number-one pick, a few bigs and point guards, and the counter-arguments that we used at the time to justify holding them in a slightly different order than what was thought of as the consensus.
Check out our individual breakdowns of each prospect below, including our thoughts of the players pre-draft and the lessons we’ve learned looking back at them.
20. Jabari Smith - F, Auburn
Draft Year: 2022
Draft Rank: 4th
Strengths: Catch-and-Shoot Impact, Scoring Upside, On-Ball Defense
Improvement Areas: Quickness, 1v1 Separation, Playmaking
Here’s a rare case of being right and wrong at the same time.
During this last year’s pre-draft process, we accurately called out several flaws that Jabari Smith would face early in his NBA career in relation to his athleticism. That didn’t stop us from putting Smith 4th on the 2022 board, and as a top-20 talent of the last five years. His shot-making ability at Auburn was simply that impressive.
Smith’s 3-point stroke was clearly translatable, and being able to shoot at size and in different ways was enticing. The issues mechanically with his dribble are what prevented him from moving higher on our board, though. Smith was, in our estimation at the time of the draft, too reliant on the creation of others for his offense. He showed at Auburn that he could make difficult shots, drilling jumpers in the mid-range over the top of defenders. But easy creation (for himself and others) would be difficult thanks to his handle and movement patterns.
Essentially, that moved Jabari toward becoming the highest-caliber role player imaginable. A 3-point shooting frontcourt piece on really high volume. A pick-and-pop maestro, a legitimate defender at the forward spot, and someone who can drill a tough jumper late-clock if asked to.
We feel comfortable that that’s what we see thus far in Houston. Any improvements and overachievements in comparison to that expectation will happen as unlocked by physical changes to his body. We feel pretty sound in our evaluation of Jabari as not being a true number-one pick contender, though time will tell if even we had him too high.
What we said at the time:
“Smith has an incredibly high ceiling, especially if he adds just a little more athleticism to his package where space creation and a first step become easier. If that’s the case, he’s an offensive hub. He’s a high-level floor-spacer. He’s a clutch shot-maker and undefendable mid-range scorer late-clock.”
19. DeAndre Ayton - P, Arizona
Draft Year: 2018
Draft Rank: 5th
Strengths: Athleticism, Defensive Upside, Rebounding
Improvement Areas: Shot Selection, Defensive Versatility, Basketball IQ
As we got into the draft space in 2018, we were entering right at the time when big men were starting to lose their value. NBA teams were trending smaller thanks to the success of the Golden State Warriors with Draymond Green playing the 5 in small lineups. The Houston Rockets went super small, and the ability to find a competent big man on the market made it less justifiable to draft a big man at the top of the draft.
We’ll see, over the next two prospects, is how we worked to develop a strategy for evaluating big men in that context. Just what boxes would they need to check in order to become elite, and therefore good enough to draft ahead of valuable guards or wings in the same territory?
Ayton never really cracked the ‘elite’ territory that would put him in contention for top pick overall. However, he was still a top-five guy on our board in 2018. We saw enough flashes of mobility that he could be both switchable and played in Drop coverage. We saw the athleticism and ease of finishing, a small bit of shooting upside (though that scared us a bit due to his shot selection), and a dominant defensive rebounder.
Looking back at the 2018 class, we feel really secure with the order we had everyone placed in (sans Mo Bamba, who we’ll discuss later in this series). Ayton has turned into a solid defensive piece whose offense is reliant on creation from offensive players. He’s a high producer in volume, but there are still playoff series where he appears to get played off the floor. That’s the challenge in taking a big man this high; even though he can be dominant in areas of the game, there’s a lack of versatility at play.
Ayton has been performing as a top-ten center in the league for much of the last two or three seasons. In our book, that’s a decent ROI for having him fifth on our board in a loaded draft class.
What we said at the time:
“Ayton is a great screener with a huge body and finishes above the rim. And there are hopes his fluid shooting mechanics will translate to the NBA 3-pointer, making him a dual threat as a screener…He has the tools but will need to work on refining his game. Ayton fell in love with contested mid-range jumpers, working through some dastardly shots and missing easy passing opportunities. He also needs to evolve and mature on the defensive end… Averaging 1.9 blocks per game and 8.2 defensive rebounds in college showed flashes, but his pick-and-roll defense and decision-making could improve.”
18. James Wiseman - P, Memphis Tigers
Draft Year: 2020
Draft Rank: 2nd
Strengths: Athleticism, Defensive Upside, Finishing
Improvement Areas: Defensive Polish, Shooting Consistency, Off-Hand
Let’s stay on the page of big men. Wiseman, the second overall pick in 2020 and player we featured second on our board that year, checked every physical box for a big. Although long and lean, he had a 7’6” wingspan, glided down the floor, and had insane athletic traits. Looking at the checklist for bigs that we established early on, Wiseman hit many of those areas right out of the gates in terms of potential, and he showed them even in small bits of film during his time at Memphis:
Protect the paint and rebound
Finish off the pick-and-roll
Have versatility for different PNR defensive schemes
Show long-term shooting upside
Looking back at his film, Wiseman did show flashes in all those boxes. The challenge with Wiseman was going to be in trusting the consistency with which he showed it and the steep learning curve ahead for guys who play his position. Wiseman would go from not playing as a college player to being thrust into a high-profile pro spot. Development would be crucial.
In some regard, it feels like the injuries, circumstances he was drafted into at Golden State, and lack of minutes available for him to play through mistakes are a built-in excuse to lean back on. We can say our evaluation was wrong due to factors outside of anyone’s control. While that seems like the easy way out, there is some truth to it.
Still, Wiseman is a prime example in falling in love with the tools and the upside without having concern for the downside. Wiseman, even back in 2020, had potential to be a bust because he hadn’t pieced his tools together at all yet and was so inexperienced. Perhaps our draft board should have reflected that risk a little more — not necessarily in where he was placed back in 2020, but how he stacks up against some of the players we’re writing about in this piece.
What we said at the time:
“The label of "best athlete" may stick with Wiseman and propel him into the top-three on draft night. Of those four boxes that all modern bigs need to check (rim protection, PNR defensive versatility, PNR finishing, shooting potential) he clearly checks three and, with more work on extending his range, will check all four… Wiseman's potential and high ceiling are difficult to ignore and worth swinging for. He could be an elite rim protector with Anthony Davis-like athleticism.”
17. Ja Morant - PG, Murray State
Draft Year: 2019
Draft Rank: 4th
Strengths: Offensive Creation, Passing, Athleticism
Improvement Areas: Defensive IQ, Off-Ball Impact, Mid-Range Game
From underrecruited out of high school to a potential top-five pick two years later, Ja Morant’s rise was absolutely epic. He burst onto the scene as a sophomore, averaging 24.5 points and 10.0 assists for Murray State en route to leading them to the NCAA Tournament. Those are some mighty impressive college numbers, especially considering he shot 50% from the field and took over 8 free throws a game.
While we recognized the genius of Morant with the ball in his hands, our worries weren’t about whether he could do that against competition greater than the OVC, but if his offensive translation would be stalled out in a few key areas. We saw a really high turnover rate on volume, and figured that would only increase going against better defenders. If that’s the case, he may need to slide off-ball more, an area he didn’t show a ton of growth or impact in at Murray State. Lastly, his scoring arsenal was very much built on his burst and athleticism; he’d get to the rim, but we didn’t see a ton of touch in the mid-range or a floater he could rely upon.
Well, we were somewhat wrong to believe his overall performance would be hampered by those areas. He did prove to be a top option from day one, and has kept working and improving to tighten up his jumper as well as his turnover rates. The volume creation out of the pick-and-roll has helped him become an All-Star, and the intangibles he brings to the table make him a franchise centerpiece.
There are still warts in Morant’s game, many of which were identifiable pre-draft. When it comes to being successful despite those flaws, Ja was undervalued on our draft board. It was a great lesson to learn, as we have gotten better as a scout, to care more about the intersection of feel and athleticism than the presence of high-volume shooting for guards. We saw the trends of NBA scores and 3-point attempts going up and valued guys that could stretch the defense out far beyond the 3-point line; they would then open up the lane for everyone else. In reality, I think the opposite is what is most important for a top option: get into the lane and make the right decision so that the role for everyone else is much simpler and all the supporting cast has to do is knock down shots. In comparison to some other guards, that’s where we fell short with Morant — a lesson we learned by 2021 and 2022.
What we said at the time:
“[Morant] flashed it all at Murray State: elite scoring in isolations and ball screens, solid shooting from deep, flashy passes and a love for playing fast… Morant is undoubtedly an NBA-caliber athlete. While the vertical, above-the-rim athleticism only comes in small bursts, he has an ability to hang in the air and make decisions that should allow him to find effectiveness against next-level athletes. There are so many obvious and eye-popping strengths that it’s easy to fall in love with his game.”
16. RJ Barrett - W, Duke
Draft Year: 2019
Draft Rank: 3rd
Strengths: 1v1 Scoring, Shooting Stroke, Passing Upside
Improvement Areas: Decision-Making, Weak Hand, Off-Ball Defense
Slightly ahead of Morant in our pecking order back in 2019, we saw Barrett as a player whose game would pop when placed outside of Duke. Sure, he can coexist and produce with another star, as he proved that year with Zion Williamson. But Barrett could ascent into becoming a top option due to the polish of his offensive game and primary ability at his size.
The passing upside was most intriguing to us; we felt we could justify Barrett becoming a number-one option because he combined three-level scoring upside with feel.
Currently averaging 19 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists on 40-28-78 shooting in year four, Barrett has been somewhat disappointing. We’ve seen the flashes, and there has been a lot of improvement in doses. That said, his inability to piece things together consistently, and some small micro skill flaws he hasn’t been able to fix, are holding him back from truly shouldering that large of a load.
Barrett is still a very good NBA player and is by no means anywhere close to being a bust. There’s still plenty of time for him to keep getting better and becoming a top option. The obstacles he’s faced this early in his career likely will not go away without a little more athletic burst. Perhaps having him in this tier was wrong (surely having him above Ja Morant doesn’t look very good), but we feel secure in taking the bait on a big scoring wing with decent passing feel and as good of a track record as he had pre-draft.
What we said at the time:
“He’s got very few holes in his offensive game, although he does favor some move more than others. He’s already proven to be fantastic at creating his own shot in isolation, finishing at the rim and making quick decisions off screens. There’s also a great deal of upside as a creator for others. Barrett’s an accurate passer in flashes, a very solid ball screen facilitator and has accuracy with both hands.”