Best Prospects of the Last Five Years (2018-22): 10-6
Based on my pre-draft grades, these were the top players I've seen since starting watching draft film back in 2018
Since I started diving into the NBA Draft in depth back in 2018, I've tried to keep an eye on year-to-year comparisons and learn from the success & mistakes I've made in the past. Part of examining those lessons is by looking at the most consequential evaluations we do: the players at the very top of these drafts.
As we look back at the last five draft classes, we dive into the best prospects we have ever scouted and how we ranked them AT THE TIME OF THE DRAFT. Which prospects have made us look good? Which still needs time to develop? Who has disappointed and already looks like an error in our pre-draft analysis? We answer all those questions in this five-part series.
There’s a real shift starting here as we get into the top ten. These are the highest-caliber superstar players we’ve scouted. All of them are the elite of the elite, and nine of the ten were placed into our top tier of prospects at the time of the draft, known as “no-doubt franchise cornerstones.” These are the guys we really didn’t see a path for failure with, raising the stakes as we would consider taking all of them first overall in many draft classes.
Check out our individual breakdowns of each prospect below, including our thoughts of the players pre-draft and the lessons we’ve learned looking back at them.
10. Anthony Edwards - CG, Georgia
Draft Year: 2020
Draft Rank: 1st
Strengths: Scoring off the Bounce, Shooting Range, Athleticism
Improvement Areas: Defensive Focus, Creation for Others, Shot Selection
Edwards was a somewhat polarizing pre-draft process in a year where the pre-draft process dragged on forever, allowing everyone to nitpick and overanalyze the circumstances surrounding a player. Edwards is built like a tank and has elite physical gifts and athleticism. He also showed three-level scoring ability at Georgia, though he was woefully inefficient playing for Tom Crean in a system that had some of the worst shooting and floor spacing we’ve seen.
Penalizing Edwards for the lack of assist numbers or the efficiency by which he scored felt shortsighted. Georgia was ridiculously bad, forcing Edwards to play as a one-man offensive piece and utilize too much energy on that end. His defense, as poor as it was, never struck us as a major shortcoming at the next level.
What we’ve seen from Edwards thus far in his career are many of the traits we saw at Georgia, for better or worse. He’s still an effective three-level scorer; he’s at 45-35-77 this year scoring 23 points per game. He’s settling for jump shots more than getting to the hoop, something he did at Georgia and that continues to be frustrating given his natural gifts. He’s defending when the games matter; his defense in the Memphis Grizzlies series was really strong and showed he’s capable.
Edwards has to keep improving to move into the elite territory and move up this list of best young players in the NBA. Most of it is decision-making and consistency, as he’s shown in spurts that he can be a dominant player and a true number-one option on a postseason team. He checked in at #1 on our boards in 2020, due in large part to the lack of other options to be a top overall prospect. In comparison to the players listed directly above him, Edwards has the clear talent and tools to overtake them.
What we said at the time:
“…there is literally no physical trait that Edwards doesn't possess that you'd want him to. He's a tailor-made athlete for NBA success, scoring the ball and running with the best of the best.
He's more comfortable in isolation and off step-backs to 3 than in going at someone's throat. The reliance on jumpers despite being great at getting to and finishing above the rim could be what holds him back from being an elite scorer and player.”
9. Jalen Suggs - CG, Gonzaga
Draft Year: 2021
Draft Rank: 3rd
Strengths: Finishing, PNR Offense, Defensive Impact
Improvement Areas: Shooting Consistency, Ball Handling, Deceleration
We fell in love with Jalen Suggs. The winner that he was at Gonzaga was evident, refusing to let the Zags lose, leading them to the National Championship game unbeaten. All the intangibles as a winner, a leader, a competitor, the guy who wanted the moment and the ball in his hands. His defense was off the charts, pressuring on the perimeter and shooting passing lanes despite not having a strong rim protector behind him.
We saw Suggs quickly turning into a high-caliber pick-and-roll creator. There were some areas that were a tad rough around the edges, particularly with his handle and pull-up, but Suggs had the decision-making and burst to really score out of screens. Unfortunately, that hasn’t translated over early in his NBA career. He isn’t hitting jumpers at too high of a clip consistently, and a few injuries have cost him time that has clearly interrupted his developmental trajectory.
Through the first third of season #2, Suggs is averaging 12.5 points and 5.4 assists on 41-29-66 shooting. He needs to drastically work to improve those two improvement areas we pointed out pre-draft: ball handling and shooting consistency. If/ when those come, Suggs will become a really consistent offensive piece and then a two-way player.
Playing in Orlando, Suggs may get to turn himself more into a specialty defensive piece on the perimeter who runs the pick-and-roll more as a facilitator or simply pushes the ball in transition. The way Paolo Banchero is aging as a scorer quickly could mean there’s very little room for Suggs to turn into a primary in the half-court… which could be the best pathway for both him and the organization.
What we said at the time:
“A high-volume PNR creator, the consistent shot off the bounce would force defenses to play him above the line. Once he gets that every time, nobody will be able to go under screens…
Defensively, Suggs is the type of competitor that rarely takes a play off. He gets into the ball and has the frame to guard 1 or 2 positions. He's tremendous off-ball, shooting into passing lanes for steals so he can play in transition and is a pretty solid rebounding lead guard.”
8. Jalen Green - CG, G-League Ignite
Draft Year: 2021
Draft Rank: 2nd
Strengths: Finishing, 1v1 Creation, Defensive Impact
Improvement Areas: Playmaking, Ball Security, Shooting Consistency
Back in 2021, Suggs and Green were neck-and-neck for the race for #2 on our big board. Green eeked Suggs out thanks to his rare natural gifts and elite scoring feel. Green has been a bucket thus far with the Houston Rockets, averaging 21.6 PPG thus far through season #2. It hasn’t always been smooth sailing for Green, especially since he plays on a really poor team. But the continued growth he’s taking as a scorer is really impressive.
Green, quite frankly, has not been good in any other ways yet. He isn’t making plays for others consistently enough, as Houston’s offense is too iso-centric from top to bottom. He isn’t making a positive impact on defense, though that could change as he matures and the Rockets get better teammates around him.
Green is the rare teenager with a special combination of athleticism and jump shooting. Those guys cannot be taken lightly and almost have an automatic ticket to the top of their draft class. Green, like Anthony Edwards, was the one guy in his draft class we felt comfortable giving the chance to because of the three-level upside. Perhaps time will justify having Green ahead of guys like Mobley or Edwards.
What we said at the time:
“At the intersection of elite athleticism and crazy shot-making stands Jalen Green, the player with the highest offensive ceiling in this class. Quite literally, there doesn't appear to be a shot or shot type that Green isn't capable of making. He's probably the most athletic in this class in two important categories: acceleration/ first step and vertical pop. The combination allows him to be one of the best guard finishers I've ever scouted.”
7. Trae Young - PG, Oklahoma
Draft Year: 2018
Draft Rank: 3rd
Strengths: Shooting Range, Scoring off the Bounce, Playmaking
Improvement Areas: Defensive Impact, Defensive Effort, Size & Strength
There’s a slight divide between Young and Green here as we move into a different level of certainty I had with prospects at the time of scouting them. After watching Young play at Oklahoma (and being one of the few players we got to see live in that 2018 draft cycle), we were incredibly confident that Trae would be a top option and contributor at the NBA level. The All-Star-caliber offensive production was on display at Oklahoma in so many ways, including in how he shot the ball from deep.
That deep-range sniping ability was the closest thing we’d seen to Stephen Curry. Young was a threat to pull as soon as he left the half-court circle, and he utilized the threat of his jumper in every dribble move he underwent. His release was lightning-quick, and he got it off with goofy footwork to keep defenders off him.
Most importantly, Young was more than a scorer. He was an excellent pick-and-roll creator and passer who dismantled any type of ball screen coverage. Cross-court passes with either hand were the norm. Lobs and pocket passes to rollers were frequent. His shooting was so elite that he could draw defenders out of the lane, and the pace and passing combination helped him dominate in other ways.
We were always concerned about Young’s defense holding up at the NBA level. He was supremely small and put very little effort in on that side at Oklahoma. Plus, his athletic tools weren’t great. For that reason, he cemented himself at #7 — the lowest guy in this mini-tier that’s placed right above the guys like Green, Suggs and Edwards.
We’re still disappointed that we haven’t seen Young play off-ball more in the NBA. To us, that was a huge part of his appeal and that he could emulate much of what happened with Stephen Curry in Golden State in a similar system. Instead, Young has been very ball screen centric… he’s great at them, but variety could take him (and his team) to the next level.
6. Chet Holmgren - ATH, Gonzaga
Draft Year: 2022
Draft Rank: 2nd
Strengths: Rim Protection, Defensive Versatility, Offensive Upside
Improvement Areas: Strength, 1v1 Creation, Shooting Consistency
It’s a shame we won’t get to see Chet Holmgren have a rookie season this year, as he’ll miss the entire 2022-23 campaign with a lisfranc injury. As such, it’s pointless to try and discuss his translation to the NBA and how what we’ve seen from him post-draft might stack up against other top prospects.
Instead, let this serve as a reminder for why Holmgren was as highly touted as he was just a few months ago. At 7’0” with a 7’6” wingspan, Chet could move on defense in ways that allowed him to be a dominant defender at either big man position. He could play in Drop coverage and protect the rim, had great weak-side instincts, always contested with verticality, and was switchable onto the perimeter. His length and shot blocking prowess should have easy translation to the league.
While his defensive ceiling is incredibly high, it’s arguable that his offensive potential is what makes him most appealing. Chet is insanely skilled for a player of his size. He handles, shoots it, creates space for himself, and gets to the bucket past overzealous defenders. Add onto that how elite of a finisher he was at Gonzaga and we see very few ways that Chet fails to find some productive and efficient offensive role in the NBA.
Just what that role looks like we aren’t sure of yet. We’ve had questions about his separation off the dribble in the half-court and whether his frame will allow him to operate as an alpha in traditional ways. But he’s too toolsy and effective near the rim to fail. Combine that with his defensive production and Chet is a player who we’d be salivating to get on any team and in any system. That versatility helps minimize any bust potential.
What we said at the time:
“Holmgren is the only center in NCAA history to record 40 3-pointers on the season while also registering 3 blocks per game… He’s switchable on defense and isn’t just a drop-back big. He’s the nation’s leader in field goal percentage at the rim, making 80% of his non-post-up looks in the half-court. He is an elite rebounder, with 14 games of double-digit rebounds, and the ball handling or athleticism to carry it end to end.”