Don't Shed A Tier: April 2023 Update
Don't Shed A Tier: April 2023 Update
A look at the tiers of talent we can project forward toward the 2023 draft class
Since I began doing draft work back in 2018 (and in public view in 2019), I’ve been doing an exercise that really forces me to think about how I rank prospects. Instead of giving just one linear ranking, I first separate them into tiers. Tiers give parameters for prospects to meet, then clump the players together based on who falls into the same categories. The exercise also forces me to acknowledge which types of players (role players vs. stars, high-upside guys vs. dependable pros) I value most.
Since 2021, I’ve been a little more fluid in acknowledging that I prefer the tiers method to a linear ranking, mainly because each team that drafts in a certain range will have different needs. There’s flexibility within each tier to take the best fit, and even some to go across multiple tiers if there’s a franchise on the clock with a higher risk propensity than others.
The college season is completed and early entrants are starting to declare their intentions, so this is the right time to re-visit a tiered ranking and see what has shifted or adjusted since the end of the season.
A quick spoiler: a lot has changed.
Tier 1: Franchise Player Alphas
Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson
One aspect that I do not expect to change: Victor Wembanyama as the lone generational prospect in this draft. He remains the best prospect I have ever scouted, with that rare and tantalizing combination between size and skill. His version is just juiced up, with step-backs and isolations in terms of skill and elite size at 7’4”. Every two weeks, Wembanyama does something that makes my jaw drop and has rarely (if ever) been seen before.
There really isn’t a race for #1 overall in this class. Wembanyama is a Tier 1 type of prospect and feels like a slam dunk to be a superstar.
The question for #2 has heated up a lot more since our last tier update. Several scouts are starting to raise questions about whether Brandon Miller has passed Scoot Henderson for the second spot. After the season Miller had, the questions are valid.
That said, Scoot maintains a tight grip on #2 for me. I wrote a lot about Scoot’s intangibles and the ‘it factor’ that he possesses in my scouting report on him, and truly believe that will carry him to success as a leading man.
These tiers certainly aren’t set in stone. Perhaps a future re-watch will move someone up into Tier 1, or slide Scoot down to Tier 2. For now, he’s a clear-cut #2 and one of the few guys in the mix for that second pick who I believe in most to fix the skill gaps in their game.
Tier 2: Alpha Upside with High-End Trajectory
Amen Thompson, Brandon Miller, Cam Whitmore
For those who read the first iteration of our tier list, you’ll remember that I list players in order within tiers to signify the confidence I have in each player fulfilling this projection. We have our first change here, with Amen Thompson overtaking Brandon Miller for the top spot in Tier 2. Much of that is due to Miller’s struggles in the NCAA Tournament and down the stretch run of the season, where his jumper-heavy arsenal finally caught up to him from an efficiency standpoint:
So much of this is built on my confidence in Amen, though. I’ve really fallen for his combination of passing and athleticism, and do believe that he’s got enough craft and verve with the ball in his hands to overcome a poor jump shot. His defensive tools are more versatile and workable than Miller’s, but everything about the way he carries himself on the floor screams superstar to me.
The last guy in this group is Cam Whitmore, who remains high on my potential star rankings because of his young age and unreal ability to get to the basket. He might be more fitting in Tier 3 just beneath us, but for now, he’s going to stay in Tier 2 due to the impressive growth of his jump shot over the last 18 months.
Tier 3: Fringe All-Stars At Peak/ Good 3rd Options
None
That’s right, I don’t see anyone in this class who safely gives off the ‘will average 18 points and make an All-Star team or two’ vibes this tier is built on. The key word is safely: there are tons of guys who fit the mold for me, but none who are really giving me the amount of security I’d want to take them over a Tier 4 excellent role player.
I think of the players in this tier as the future Fred VanVleet/ Tyrese Maxey/ D’Angelo Russell impact for guards: they’re good enough to command a heavy workload, but do have some deficiencies that prevent them from becoming primary options. On the wings, this manifests itself with guys like Bojan Bogdanovic/ Keldon Johnson/ Jerami Grant. There can be many types of athletes who are here and put up impressive numbers, but it’s highly unlikely they’ll be a top scoring threat on a very good team.
Bigs rarely fall into this category anymore; they’re either superstar-calibers in the top two tiers due to their offensive output or they’re more of a dependable defender and anchor that would put them into Tier 4.
As we move into Tier 5, take a look for several of the names there who, if all clicks right, will turn into Tier 3 guys in terms of their output. There are just too many questions for us right now to place them in this tier and above the multitude of high-end role players.
Tier 4: The Safest, High-Value Role Players/ Connective Starters
Jarace Walker, Ausar Thompson, Cason Wallace, Taylor Hendricks, Gradey Dick
This tier is the one where the relative strength of this draft class comes through. There’s a real blending of tiers 3 thru 5 with very little separation between them. I always think there’s value in taking players who you know are going to be high-end rotation players or starters as soon as those sure-thing top options fly off the board. In essence, it’s where the board starts to shift away from ‘try to hit the home run’ to ‘make sure you at least get on base’.
The five players in this tier are ones I have a difficult time envisioning being out of the league in a few years. They’re so solid and dependable that they will make an impact somewhere. Four of the five have potential to be defensive stars — incredibly valuable and just beneath the offensive or two-way guys we start to see in Tier 1 through 3.
Ausar Thompson, the twin brother of Tier 2’s Amen Thompson, is giving off big Andre Iguodala vibes lately. He’s a great connective piece and just too inconsistent of a scorer to put much higher on the list. I’ve been impressed by the defensive potential and think he’s sneakily more scalable to different environments than I’ve given him credit for. He’s just a little far away shooting-wise from being a reliable off-ball player.
Kentucky’s Cason Wallace and Houston’s Jarace Walker are essentially the same player in astoundingly different bodies. Wallace is a 6’3” pitbull guard who plays bigger than he is on defense, has savant-like instincts off-ball, and can lock guys up on the perimeter. Walker is 6’8” and built like a defensive end. He moves his feet like a ballerina in space, can really move on the perimeter and has started to knock down jumpers at a high rate. Both project as spot-up guys first and foremost as pros, though oversimplifying their offensive talents to labeling them shooters ignores the well-rounded natures of their games. Both are huge culture changers and excellent role players.
The biggest riser over the last month for me has been Taylor Hendricks of UCF, who vaults into Tier 4 as a high-end role player. His defense is just that damn good and really versatile. The reliable shooting that pairs with it makes him so valuable, even if he’s more of a 4/5 than a 3/4.
The last guy in this tier is Gradey Dick, an incredibly reliable 3-point shooter who has good positional size at 6’8” to go with it. Dick has a major IQ that fits in well with his projected role. He knows how to move around the perimeter and doesn’t over-dribble it. While there are some defensive concerns, the fact he’s 6’8” and knows how to play off-ball will really help him at least stay on the floor.
Tier 5: High-Upside Lottery Swings
GG Jackson, Nick Smith, Anthony Black, Jalen Hood-Schifino, Keyonte George
Sometimes it just makes sense to swing for the fences. The five players in this class all have upside that could vault them into Tier 3 performances if things break right. But one question, if not more, about their games really makes it hard to rely on them and put them above the dependable role players of Tier 4.
Upon our latest re-rewatch, GG Jackson stood out as one of the players with the most monstrous upside in this class. If all clicks for him, he’s a top-five talent. Still a year younger than anyone else in this range, Jackson’s scoring prowess as a teenager is noteworthy. Yes, there are a ton of red flags and other areas to clean up. He could also become a dominant two-way player down the line, so he belongs as the highest upside player in this tier.
Two Razorbacks from Arkansas are here as well, with Anthony Black and Nick Smith. Black’s shooting and half-court scoring are the major question marks. He’s a high-feel point guard at 6’8” and a tremendous, intense point of attack defender. If he can figure out the scoring, he’ll be a starting-caliber player while bringing positional size to the table.
Smith, on the other hand, is a scoring-minded combo with a skinny frame and less-than-ideal size. But Smith’s body of work at Arkansas is heavily muddled thanks to injury issues he faced. Scouts are all over the board on Smith; some see top-seven upside while others would not touch him until later in the draft. I’m higher on him long-term because his touch and shooting ability are translatable skills. He does need work on his overall athletic tools and passing, though.
Indiana’s Jalen Hood-Schifino is as cerebral of a point guard as they come. He’s big for the position at 6’6” and has unreal command over the ball. His Achilles heel is two-fold: he doesn’t shoot the ball consistently from deep and he isn’t a very explosive athlete. At his size, he can overcome a lack of vertical pop with his skill level and muscle. But he can’t overcome both that and an unreliable 3-point stroke. I’ve fallen in love with his feel for the game, but I struggle spending a top-10 pick on a player who would operate with the ball in his hands and struggle as a self-creator in isolation. He’s got late lottery upside, just with too many questions to have as a lock in this range.
Finally, Keyonte George slides down from Tier 3 to Tier 5. I have some feel questions. I’ve been an ardent defender of Keyonte’s passing ability out of the pick-and-roll, but the more I watch, the more I think he struggles with pressure and not pre-determining some of his decisions. There’s tremendous three-level upside here and some defensive tools to tap into. But he’s not a great athlete at 6’5” and as such will be hard to value ahead of other high-risk, high-reward pieces like GG Jackson or Anthony Black.
Tier 6: Role Players w/First-Round Grades
Dereck Lively, Jordan Hawkins, Kris Murray, Rayan Rupert, Kobe Bufkin, Sidy Cissoko
As we get into the role player tier of first-round grades, I feel pretty comfortable that all of these players will be helpful pieces of a rotation someday. There’s a chance that one or two of them make more sense to take than a player in Tier 5 for a team who doesn’t have a high tolerance for risk in this class, meaning I wouldn’t be surprised if many of them jumped into the lottery.
There’s also a chance that some of them are passed by the guys in Tier 7 if, later on in the early 20s, an upside swing for a player type makes more sense than a role player who is ill-fitting in the drafting team’s system. Tiers are very fluid at this point in the later part of the first round, which is where drafting ‘best player available’ starts to relax and no longer be an overarching philosophy.
This is basically a brand-new tier. Lively and Hawkins had great closes to the season and are scooting up boards as a result. Lively has a ways to go to be anything other than a lob-catcher on offense, but he showed how valuable his rim protection can be. Hawkins is a flamethrower on the move and one of the best shooting prospects in this year’s class. He has some real defensive tools to work with, too.
Kris Murray out of Iowa is the twin brother of current Sacramento Kings forward Keegan Murray. They aren’t exactly the same player, though Kris is just like his brother in the fact that he’s a steady, mistake-free big wing. Kris projects as a solid 3-and-D wing who can do a few more things on the interior if asked to, but is the standard bearer for consistent production and impact. Murray gets a pure first-round grade, but his lack of upside off the bounce holds him in this tier.
Rupert is very similar to Murray: steady as a role player. His defense can be overwhelming with his 7’2” wingspan for a guard. He buys into his role as an auxiliary offensive piece and has been an excellent teammate and competitor on a pro team as a teenager. Those guys tend to stick, and I get a sense that Rupert is going to trend closer to the lottery as this cycle goes on.
Bufkin is another major riser through my draft evaluations thus far. He’s not great at any one thing in particular, but he tests well from an analytic perspective and has no glaring flaws in his game. He’s a young sophomore who blossomed over the final six weeks of the year as he transitioned into a leading man role for the Wolverines. If he can keep that trajectory heading upward, he’ll be far better than a middle-of-the-first guy.
Lastly in this tier is Sidy Cissoko, a hard-wired competitor and thick-framed positionless player from the Ignite. Some may see him as a high-upside player, but I see his impact in the NBA as a defensive specialist and passing connector on the wings or frontcourt. He rose up our rankings and is definitely deserving of a first-round grade.
Tier 7: High-Upside Guys w/ First-Round Grades
Dariq Whitehead, Jett Howard, Brice Sensabaugh, Leonard Miller, Max Lewis
This tier is filled with guys who could easily return top-ten value. But there are a few obstacles or issues I have that make them risky. Let’s run through them rather quickly.
Dariq Whitehead: Really good shooter with scoring upside from high school. Injuries and a lack of quickness off the bounce put anything other than catch-and-shoot offense into unknown territory.
Jett Howard: Versatile shooter at 6’8” with real impact off screens. Can get really hot in a hurry… but if the shot isn’t falling, there isn’t much he does well to impact a game. Struggles on defense and is a subpar athlete.
Brice Sensabaugh: Potential three-level scorer with a rugged, thick frame for a freshman. Shooting touch is really enticing. Right now, he’s inconsistent as a playmaker for others and is really far behind his contemporaries in terms of knowing how to play defense.
Leonard Miller: Unique blend of long, lanky, and skilled 6’10” forward. Best long-term role untapped by leaning into becoming a versatile defensive stopper. Despite touch and handling skill, his jump shot is really inconsistent, and finding a reliable offensive role is threatened without one.
Max Lewis: Incredibly high-upside scorer with great length, athletic tools, and shooting upside. Lewis was inefficient down the stretch of the year, really struggles on defense, and has yet to be an effective piece of a successful team. He’s raw for a sophomore and will likely need a lot of time before turning into a rotation player.
That’s where our current first-round grades stop. 26 grades, with several more on the cusp, such as Adem Bona, Colby Jones, and any late guys who we dive into much more in-depth.