Scoot vs. Victor: 5 Things to Watch
Scoot vs. Victor: 5 Things to Watch
The Ignite and Metropolitans exhibition contests this week might be the biggest games of this entire scouting cycle
Rarely do we see the most impactful games of a draft cycle occur in October. In Las Vegas this week, the NBA scouting world will show up to witness a showdown of the frontrunners for the top two picks in the upcoming 2023 NBA Draft. Scoot Henderson of the G-League Ignite and Victor Wembanyama of Metropolitans are both elite-tier prospects at this stage in their development.
Over the next nine months, we expect to hear a great deal about both Scoot and Victor and see every performance of their examined under a microscope. Both play in professional leagues against older men and legitimate talent, meaning there isn’t much of a leg up to be gained with the added trope of “it’s so impressive what he’s doing against pro competition.” The sentiment applies to both.
We’ve spoken pretty clearly and frequently about both during this draft cycle, with Sam Vecenie on the Game Theory Podcast and in our own writing and breakdowns. Without diving too deep into each player, the elevator pitch on each heading into the week is pretty simple.
We’ve never seen a prospect like Victor Wembanyama before. Recently measured as 7’4”, he towers over everyone in a room and has a surprising amount of fluidity. His frame is skinny and he’ll constantly have pundits questioning his durability, but his defensive upside is massive thanks to his long arms and lateral movement ability as well as his recovery with a near 8’0” wingspan. What Victor is showing to start the season with Metropolitans is a legitimate ability to create his own offense, shoot the ball and operate as a perimeter-based player. He’s always a roll threat and can be a dominant finisher on the inside, but a burgeoning jumper as well as 1v1 moves that are effective move him into the stratosphere with upside.
For Scoot, this is a chance to really cement himself as a special prospect that deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as Victor. While Scoot doesn’t have the physical outlier traits, he’s an elite athlete in several areas: vertical burst, acceleration, deceleration and bend. He excels in transition and out of the pick-and-roll. His feel as an 18-year-old is off the charts in terms of how he creates for others and he is effective in the mid-range area, thriving with a 15-foot pull-up. The question for Scoot will be his jump shot range and ability to punish teams that go underneath ball screens he’s involved in.
As we look forward to the two matchups this week between the Ignite and Metropolitans, we have to examine more than just Scoot and Victor. It’s very unlikely they’ll be guarding each other (though Victor will likely be involved in defending a fair amount of Henderson pick-and-rolls). The team contexts they’re playing in will also be important: other matchups, spacing around these burgeoning stars, and other prospects looking to stand out as deserving of first-round love from NBA scouts.
These are the five things we’re watching for in the upcoming Ignite vs. Metropolitans matchups:
1. Those Scoot PNR Reps with Victor guarding the screener
While Wembanyama’s offense is what really wows spectators, his defensive potential is as high as any prospect I’ve ever scouted. To see a 7’4” big with an 8’0” wingspan and some lateral movement ability defend ball screens is a scary sight. He negates space so easily and in Europe will rarely get challenged by the type of athleticism Henderson brings to the table. On the same token, Henderson won’t face a rim protector with the size and ability of Victor all season.
I’m curious to see what type of coverage Metropolitans goes with: if they’re content staying in Drop and letting Victor hang out near the rim or if he’ll be a tad more aggressive and possibly switch. I’m assuming that, because the game is played in Las Vegas, there will be defensive three seconds in play, changing the dynamic for Victor to avoid being stationed under the basket in a centerfield coverage. But the real test for both could come if Vic is either forced to switch or does so by design. Can Wembanyama move laterally/ is his length massive enough to recover even against top-tier athletes going at him one-on-one? Is Scoot fast enough to go around even the mightiest of rim protectors?
There’s room for a lot of nuance in the middle, though. Does Metropolitans stay home on shooters/ spot-up threats around the PNR and trust Victor to patrol the paint, thus shutting off the passing outlets for Scoot? Can Scoot get to his mid-range or floater and have an impact? Will Metropolitans simply go under ball screens and dare Scoot to shoot? Is Efe Abogidi going to get open pick-and-pop jumpers for the Ignite, and if so, can he knock him down? How would Wembanyama adjust if that happens?
The game is much more than just about Scoot and Victor, but their superstardom will collide most specifically in the pick-and-roll. Henderson’s game is built on PNR reps in the half-court; I don’t think he can shy away from running them and has to go at Victor someway, somehow. Those reps are going to be so fun to watch.
2. Will the Ignite double-team Victor?
Look, the highlights from Victor’s first few outings this season with Metropolitans are absurd. He’s seemingly moved to this program from ASVEL because he can have a supremely long leash offensively and is emboldened to play with confidence. From a scouting perspective, I love it: we get to see flashes of the actualized version of Victor, carrying a team’s offense and figuring out where he’s most comfortable on the floor.
In the moments where he handles the ball in isolations, either face-up or back-down, I’m curious to see if Wembanyama will be double-teamed by the Ignite. The Ignite constructed their roster around Scoot and Sidy Cissoko on the offensive end, surrounding them with strong shooters (John Jenkins, Aubrey Dawkins, Marcus Graves) on the wings. Abogidi and Shareef O’Neal are the main centers on the team, leaving a little bit of experience on the table. Abogidi, in particular, has shown some foul troubles in his time at Washington State. The Ignite lack depth around him; Eric Mika and James Southerland are solid pros, but not defensively cut out for playing with Victor.
Double-teaming could help get the ball out of Victor’s hands and save Abogidi from any foul trouble. There are enough veterans on the roster to know how to scramble out of those doubles; the young kids involved (primarily Leonard Miller) will be tested with their help defensive IQ in any setting where the traps come. Doing so provides a unique scouting tidbit on both ends, as we get to see if the Ignite kids can quickly feel their way through different help schemes and if Victor is a good enough and proactive passer.
Of course, the Ignite could very well not trap him, and may not even guard Victor with a traditional 5-man. Miller and Cissoko could get some reps one-on-one if they go smaller, though that could leave them susceptible to switches/ blown coverages in the pick-and-roll. I’d expect to see the 5-man draw the assignment and then the Ignite sprinkle in some jump traps on occasion.
3. How does the Ignite rotation look?
This is our first time seeing this Ignite team perform, and it seems like there are still moving parts on the roster. Just this week, London Johnson announced he’s joining the program on a two-year contract. This program is brimming with young talent from all over the globe and fills in the gaps with veterans who play a more complementary game, both stylistically and around the pieces the Ignite acquired. We don’t know exactly what the depth chart will be, but there are certainly plenty of guys deserving of (eventual) minutes.
G - Scoot Henderson, Pooh Jeter, London Johnson, Mojave King
G - John Jenkins, Marcus Graves
W - Sidy Cissoko, Aubrey Dawkins, Cameron Young
4 - Leonard Miller, Eric Mika, James Southerland
5 - Efe Abogidi, Shareef O’Neal
Having one of Jenkins, Graves or Dawkins on the floor around Henderson pick-and-rolls is crucial… especially if Cissoko is in those lineups. Cissoko and Miller have legitimate shooting promise, though neither are actualized yet. From a roster construction standpoint, floor spacing is always vital around a PNR-based guard, but it becomes even more essential against an individual defender who can plug up the paint like Victor.
Speaking of Cissoko and Miller, I wonder what role these young guys have right out of the gate. London Johnson will likely take the most time to incorporate, but Leonard Miller was incredibly raw and unrefined the last time we saw him at the NBA Draft combine. Mojave King and Sidy Cissoko played in international pro leagues last year; their translation and readiness for minutes in comparison to the pros on this roster will be worth monitoring even in an exhibition setting.
4. On-ball reps for Cissoko and Miller
The two most intriguing long-term prospects in this game outside of Scoot and Victor are Sidy Cissoko and Leonard Miller. We have a first-round grade on Cissoko at this point in time, as he’s really shown a fascinating intersection of playmaking feel and athleticism at about 6’6”. He’s a plus defender, is developing as a shooter and loves to play in the open floor.
If the Ignite can get out in transition, they have a ton of pieces to thrive. The half-court, however, could be a different story. Henderson is clearly the alpha this year, and last season he struggled in moments playing off-ball, with low C&S numbers and showing a propensity to “ball beg” and want to creep towards half-court to get a reversal pass.
The Ignite have to be shrewd about how they structure their offense to ensure Henderson isn’t overly ball-dominant (the other guys here need on-ball reps) while mitigating the spacing concerns in the moments when Scoot is off-ball. Cissoko is much farther ahead of Leonard Miller right now in terms of polish and impact with the ball in his hands. I’d expect to see some wonky PNR combinations with Sidy and for him to be utilized as the team’s secondary creator. Eventually, Mojave King and London Johnson could fall into those spots and add a little more playmaking punch.
Miller is, as we keep saying ad nauseam, the ultimate wild card. How much burn he gets out of the gates, as well as what type of role he gets, will be a development to monitor. He’s clearly comfortable with the ball in his hands and with a long leash; perhaps the best use of him early is to put him in spots where he’s comfortable, even if it means moving other pieces around from a rotation and lineup standpoint to get him those touches.
5. Wembanyama’s Jumper
Fair or not, these two contests are going to be placed under a microscope from top to bottom and examined with the utmost thoroughness. Efficiency in these games will matter, particularly for many of the high-level decision-makers who won’t get to travel across the pond to see Victor a lot but will be in Vegas this week. Wembanyama has battled inconsistency with his jumper for years; his form is solid and it looks pure, but he made less than 30% of his attempts last year and has been streaky to start this one.
Because there are two games being played, the excuse of having one poor shooting night won’t hold much validity. If shooting is going to be seen as a legitimate long-term strength of his, he likely needs to knock down a few triples this week to make sure that criticism cannot be held against him. It’s a lot of pressure to put on a kid, but at the end of the day, going 2-10 each game is likely better than going 0-2… he just needs to be able to hit something from range.