Don't Shed A Tier: Pre-Lottery Night Update
There's been some slight movement in our top-30 and with first-round grades over the last month as the class starts to take shape
Since I began doing draft work back in 2018 (and in public view in 2019), I’ve been doing an exercise that really forces me to think about how I rank prospects. Instead of giving just one linear ranking, I first separate them into tiers. Tiers give parameters for prospects to meet, then clump the players together based on who falls into the same categories. The exercise also forces me to acknowledge which types of players (role players vs. stars, high-upside guys vs. dependable pros) I value most.
Beginning in 2021, I’ve been a little more fluid in acknowledging that I prefer the tiers method to a linear ranking, mainly because each team that drafts in a certain range will have different needs. There’s flexibility within each tier to take the best fit, and even some to go across multiple tiers if there’s a franchise on the clock with a higher risk propensity than others.
Over the last month, I’ve done some re-tiering projects when looking back at the 2021 and 2020 draft classes to see what lessons I could learn and what prospects I have correctly and incorrectly projected. The biggest takeaway is felt in the reshuffling that I’ve done on my 2023 board since April: always value the intersection of feel and positional size, even if the shot hasn’t come around yet.
So who are the major risers, and what internal debates do I expect to be having between now and the finalization of my board in June? We’ll preview the players I’m struggling with the most and a few who are knocking on the door of first-round grades at the very end.
To see the big board in video form, make sure you check out our Big Board over on YouTube:
Tier 1: Franchise Player Alphas
Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson
One aspect that I do not expect to change: Victor Wembanyama standing as the lone generational prospect in this draft. He remains the best prospect I have ever scouted, with that rare and tantalizing combination between size and skill. His version is just juiced up, with step-backs and isolations in terms of skill and elite size at 7’4”. Every two weeks, Wembanyama does something that makes my jaw drop and has rarely (if ever) been seen before.
There really isn’t a race for #1 overall in this class. Wembanyama is a Tier 1 type of prospect and feels like a slam dunk to be a superstar.
Scoot Henderson remains with a tight grip on the second spot for me and is one of the best guard prospects I’ve evaluated in my six years of scouting. What Henderson brings athletically is rare for a guy his size, and the intangibles are off the charts in terms of work ethic and feel for when to take over a game. There are areas to keep working on (namely shooting range) but he can handle being a high-volume star.
The question for #2 has heated up a lot on the public side, with Brandon Miller creeping into #2 on several mainstream boards. After doing a full dive into Miller this week, I can understand his ascent while also not placing him there on my own board. I’ll discuss Miller in the next tier below more at length, but I do believe that Scoot is the only other high-likelihood star in this class.
These tiers certainly aren’t set in stone. Perhaps a future re-watch will move someone up into Tier 1, or slide Scoot down to Tier 2. For now, he’s a clear-cut #2 and one of the few guys in the mix for that second pick who I believe in most to fix the skill gaps in their game.
Tier 2: Alpha Upside with High-End Trajectory
Amen Thompson, Brandon Miller
For those who read the first iteration of our tier list, you’ll remember that I list players in order within tiers to signify the confidence I have in each player fulfilling this projection. Amen Thompson overtook Brandon Miller for the top spot in Tier 2 last time, and we’re sticking with that choice. It’s mainly due to Miller’s struggles in the NCAA Tournament and down the stretch run of the season, where his jumper-heavy arsenal finally caught up to him from an efficiency standpoint.
But I do believe Miller belongs in the high-upside tier due to many of the on-court intangibles he’s shown and the propensity for offensive versatility he brings to the table. Miller gets compared a lot to Jabari Smith, and I feel like it’s a horrible and lazy comparison. Sure, there are slight similarities: both are 6’9” and have beautiful shots while having some issues converting at the bucket and look slightly awkward while doing it.
Miller, however, is far more fluid of a playmaker and a handler to create his own than Smith ever was. His versaility to play off-ball is the same, though the on-ball creation is much higher. To be honest, I am higher on the top-four in this class than I was with the 2022 class a year ago. Miller’s positive production is a large part of the reason why.
Still, Thompson takes the spot a half-peg higher within this tier. So much of that is built on my confidence in Amen. I’ve really fallen for his combination of passing and athleticism, and do believe that he’s got enough craft and verve with the ball in his hands to overcome a poor jump shot. His defensive tools are more versatile and workable than Miller’s, but everything about the way he carries himself on the floor screams superstar to me.
There’s risk involved with Amen, who is unproven at playing level and with the poor jump shot. The tools he possesses to live in the lane and the combination of tools and feel are priorities for me as an evaluator this year. I’m going to covet them when I find them, and Amen has them all.
Tier 3: Fringe All-Stars At Peak/ Good 3rd Options
Anthony Black, Cam Whitmore
A month ago on the last iteration of my tiered rankings, this tier was empty. Well, I’ve made an adjustment after looking at the past few drafts and how many guys I’d slot in this range. One big riser has shot his way up into this tier, and one player who I once saw as a Tier 2 player now is subject to greater scrutiny.
Let’s start with Anthony Black, the major riser over the last month after our full scouting report and latest watch-through. Black has all the tools I look for in a low-risk player. He is a terrific defender (the best perimeter defender in this class), a high-feel passer and playmaker, a strong finisher near the rim, and has positional size. There’s something about the intangibles he brings to the table as well that make me want to bet on him over the long term.
Black’s ceiling is as a fringe All-Star on an annual basis who makes the right plays for his team and is a winning piece. Cam Whitmore out of Villanova clearly has the higher ceiling; he’s an absolutely elite athlete, is a little younger/ less developed, and was in our Tier 2 at the last update.
But Whitmore also features several concerning traits that have me concerned about his ascent to a clear top option or future star. His feel with the ball in his hands is a bit low, and he is more of a catch-and-survey player who prefers isolation to quick-attacks on the catch. Speed of decision-making and feel are both worries of mine for the playoffs down the line. If Cam shows progress here early in his career, this will look like too low of a ranking. Based on what he’s illustrated thus far, it’s where I think he needs to be.
Tier 4: The Safest, High-Value Role Players/ Connective Starters
Cason Wallace, Taylor Hendricks, Jarace Walker, Ausar Thompson, Gradey Dick
Same players here, slightly different shuffling of the order among them. That order exists in a vacuum, though. The beauty of a tiered approach is that, as we get farther down the board and closer to role players/ connective starters, team fit can matter more. The ranking isn’t as binary, so if a team needs a 3-point specialist above all else, Gradey Dick is justifiable in being drafted over the others in this group.
The five players in this tier are ones I have a difficult time envisioning being out of the league in a few years. They’re so solid and dependable that they will make an impact somewhere. Four of the five have potential to be defensive stars — incredibly valuable and just beneath the offensive or two-way guys we start to see in Tier 1 through 3.
Ausar Thompson, the twin brother of Tier 2’s Amen Thompson, is giving off big Andre Iguodala vibes lately. He’s a great connective piece and just too inconsistent of a scorer to put much higher on the list. I’ve been impressed by the defensive potential and think he’s sneakily more scalable to different environments than I’ve given him credit for. He’s just a little far away shooting-wise from being a reliable off-ball player.
Kentucky’s Cason Wallace and Houston’s Jarace Walker are essentially the same player in astoundingly different bodies. Wallace is a 6’3” pitbull guard who plays bigger than he is on defense, has savant-like instincts off-ball, and can lock guys up on the perimeter. Walker is 6’8” and built like a defensive end. He moves his feet like a ballerina in space, can really move on the perimeter and has started to knock down jumpers at a high rate. Both project as spot-up guys first and foremost as pros, though oversimplifying their offensive talents to labeling them shooters ignores the well-rounded natures of their games. Both are huge culture changers and excellent role players.
The ascent of Taylor Hendricks from UCF has been remarkable, and he is very legitimately in this tier of prospect. His defense is just that damn good and really versatile. The reliable shooting that pairs with it makes him so valuable, even if he’s more of a 4/5 than a 3/4.
The last guy in this tier is Gradey Dick, an incredibly reliable 3-point shooter who has good positional size at 6’8” to go with it. Dick has a major IQ that fits in well with his projected role. He knows how to move around the perimeter and doesn’t over-dribble it. While there are some defensive concerns, the fact he’s 6’8” and knows how to play off-ball will really help him at least stay on the floor.
Tier 5: High-Upside Lottery Swings
GG Jackson, Keyonte George
This is the tier where I’m starting to make the most adjustments after doing a study of the last few draft classes. Very few of these high-ceiling guys are sticking right now. I’ve got to be more selective in keeping this tier small, valuing only those who have the highest of ceilings or at least a pathway forward to be an impactful role player.
Upon our latest re-rewatch, GG Jackson stood out as one of the players with the most monstrous upside in this class. If all clicks for him, he’s a top-five talent. Still a year younger than anyone else in this range, Jackson’s scoring prowess as a teenager is noteworthy. Yes, there are a ton of red flags and other areas to clean up. He could also become a dominant two-way player down the line, so he belongs as the highest upside player outside of the top few tiers.
Baylor combo guard Keyonte George also keeps his hold in Tier 5 based on the fluidity of his shooting ability. I can see Keyonte thriving on-ball and off-ball thanks to how clean of a ball he shoots. A role adjustment that puts him closer to the third option on offense (as opposed to the top one at Baylor) could do wonders for him as well. There’s simply too much risk with his pre-planned playmaking, underwhelming athleticism, and general inconsistency to vault George into a higher tier.
Tier 6: Role Players w/First-Round Grades
Kobe Bufkin, Sidy Cissoko, Dereck Lively, Jalen Hood-Schifino, Kris Murray, Jordan Hawkins, Colby Jones
As we get into the role player tier of first-round grades, I feel pretty comfortable that all of these players will be helpful pieces of a rotation someday. There’s a chance that one or two of them make more sense to take than a player in Tier 5 for a team who doesn’t have a high tolerance for risk in this class, meaning I wouldn’t be surprised if many of them jumped into the lottery.
There’s also a chance that some of them are passed by the guys in Tier 7 if, later on in the early 20s, an upside swing for a player type makes more sense than a role player who is ill-fitting in the drafting team’s system. Tiers are very fluid at this point in the later part of the first round, which is where drafting ‘best player available’ starts to relax and no longer be an overarching philosophy.
Michigan’s Kobe Bufkin is another major riser through my draft evaluations thus far. He’s not great at any one thing in particular, but he tests well from an analytic perspective and has no glaring flaws in his game. He’s a young sophomore who blossomed over the final six weeks of the year as he transitioned into a leading man role for the Wolverines. If he can keep that trajectory heading upward, he’ll be far better than a middle-of-the-first guy.
Another one of ‘my guys’ is Sidy Cissoko of the G-League Ignite. He checks those immediate boxes of positional size, strength, high-feel playmaking, and defensive effort. Cissoko’s jump shot remains a major work-in-progress, limiting him from likely cracking the top-12 on draft night. After that, he’s a guy I’m incredibly high on due to his competitive traits, effort as a multi-positional defender, and ability to pop more on an NBA floor with his feel. If the shot comes around, he’s the ideal NBA role player.
Just behind those two ‘favorites’ of mine comes Dereck Lively, the big man from Duke with sky-high defensive potential. Lively made a major leap over the final six weeks of the season to cement himself as a mid-first guy, and the right team could take him in the lottery because he patrols the paint so effectively. The issue with Lively is predictability of impact on offense. He’s rather timid, doesn’t have great feel (despite some short roll passing chops), and needs most of his finishes gift-wrapped to him at the bucket. In the right situation, he’s a starting-caliber big in the modern NBA.
Indiana’s Jalen Hood-Schifino is as cerebral of a point guard as they come. He’s big for the position at 6’6” and has unreal command over the ball. His Achilles heel is two-fold: he doesn’t shoot the ball consistently from deep and he isn’t a very explosive athlete. At his size, he can overcome a lack of vertical pop with his skill level and muscle. But he can’t overcome both that and an unreliable 3-point stroke. I’ve fallen in love with his feel for the game, but I struggle spending a top-10 pick on a player who would operate with the ball in his hands and struggle as a self-creator in isolation. He’s got late-lottery upside, just with too many questions to have as a lock in this range.
About a half-step down from the guys mentioned above is Kris Murray, the twin brother of current Sacramento Kings forward Keegan Murray. They aren’t exactly the same player, though Kris is just like his brother in the fact that he’s a steady, mistake-free big wing. Kris projects as a solid 3-and-D wing who can do a few more things on the interior if asked to, but is the standard bearer for consistent production and impact. Murray gets a pure first-round grade, but his lack of upside off the bounce holds him in this tier.
Two more players have secured role player first round grades, though I’m not feeling fantastic about it at the moment: Colby Jones of Xavier and Jordan Hawkins of Connecticut. Hawkins is a movement shooter with decent defensive effort, while Jones is the do-it-all combo guard whose feel and size set him apart. I have questions about functional translation for both, though cannot deny their impacts over the last year and the safety I feel in them earning roles in a rotation at some point in their careers.
Tier 7: High-Upside Guys w/First-Round Grades
Leonard Miller, Brice Sensabaugh, Dariq Whitehead, Nick Smith, Jett Howard, Max Lewis
This tier is filled with guys who could easily return top-ten value. But there are a few obstacles or issues I have that make them risky. Let’s run through them rather quickly.
Leonard Miller: Unique blend of long, lanky, and skilled 6’10” forward. Best long-term role untapped by leaning into becoming a versatile defensive stopper. Despite touch and handling skill, his jump shot is really inconsistent, and finding a reliable offensive role is threatened without one.
Brice Sensabaugh: Potential three-level scorer with a rugged, thick frame for a freshman. Shooting touch is really enticing. Right now, he’s inconsistent as a playmaker for others and is really far behind his contemporaries in terms of knowing how to play defense.
Dariq Whitehead: Really good shooter with scoring upside from high school. Injuries and a lack of quickness off the bounce put anything other than catch-and-shoot offense into unknown territory.
Nick Smith: Shifty score-first guard who struggled with injuries this year, just like Whitehead. He could turn into a 20 PPG scorer, but underdeveloped feel as a passer and really poor defensive mechanics threaten his ability to contribute to winning basketball. Smith is a great kid with elite work ethic, though.
Jett Howard: Versatile shooter at 6’8” with real impact off screens. Can get really hot in a hurry… but if the shot isn’t falling, there isn’t much he does well to impact a game. Struggles on defense and is a subpar athlete.
Max Lewis: Incredibly high-upside scorer with great length, athletic tools, and shooting upside. Lewis was inefficient down the stretch of the year, really struggles on defense, and has yet to be an effective piece of a successful team. He’s raw for a sophomore and will likely need a lot of time before turning into a rotation player.
That’s where our current first-round grades stop. 27 first-round grades, a number that could rise or fall depending on a couple of re-watches. It’s not as weak of a class as I think it gets made out to be, there’s just a lot of nitpicking and unpredictability once we get outside the top-12 or top-13.
Love the tweaks you made w/ Anthony Black and Tier 5. Very similar to what i have on my board.